Trading.com CEO Predicts Strong Rally for Gold and Silver in Late 2025; Sees Oil Softening in Q4

Peter McGuire, CEO of Trading.com, is forecasting a powerful rally for precious metals in the second half of 2025. In his outlook, gold could climb as high as $3,600 to $4,000 per ounce, while silver may surpass the $40 mark. McGuire points to a combination of a weakening US dollar, an anticipated interest rate cut by US policymakers, and sustained investor demand as the primary catalysts behind his bullish view for bullion.

Why Gold and Silver Could Rise

McGuire’s expectation rests on several core market dynamics. First, a softer US dollar typically makes dollar-priced assets such as gold and silver cheaper for holders of other currencies, encouraging cross-border buying. Second, an anticipated cut in US interest rates tends to lower real yields, which reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. Lower real yields often increase investor appetite for precious metals as a store of value and an inflation hedge.

Third, McGuire highlights steady investor demand. Precious metals often attract inflows from a range of market participants—including institutional investors, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), private bullion buyers, and some central banks—especially when macroeconomic uncertainty or concerns about monetary policy arise. These flows can amplify price moves in both gold and silver, with silver typically exhibiting larger percentage swings due to a smaller market size and meaningful industrial demand components.

Market Reactions and Near-Term Movements

McGuire acknowledged that the precious metals market briefly corrected after US President Trump publicly confirmed that there would be no tariffs on precious metals. That clarification removed an immediate source of policy uncertainty, prompting a short-lived pullback. Despite that correction, McGuire remains confident that the third and fourth quarters of 2025 will be bullish for bullion, with silver likely to show greater percentage gains than gold if his scenario plays out.

Silver’s combination of investment and industrial demand often results in wider price swings. When macro conditions favor precious metals broadly, silver can outperform on a percentage basis even if gold leads in absolute dollar terms. Investors sensitive to volatility and leverage can therefore expect differing risk-reward profiles between the two metals.

Oil Outlook: Downside Pressure Seen in Q4

Looking beyond metals, McGuire also forecasts a decline in crude oil prices in the fourth quarter of 2025. He cites several factors that could weigh on energy markets: easing geopolitical tensions that remove risk premiums, abundant supply in global markets, and a trend of falling inflation. Taken together, these conditions could relieve upward pressure on energy prices, potentially translating into lower fuel costs for consumers and reduced cost burdens for businesses.

Lower oil prices would have broader economic implications. Cheaper energy typically acts like a mild stimulus by reducing transportation and production costs, which can lift disposable income for households and improve margins for energy-intensive industries. At the same time, softer oil may influence monetary policy dynamics, since energy is a significant component of inflation measures.

Risks and What Could Change the Outlook

McGuire’s forecasts are conditional and subject to change based on evolving macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions. Key risks that could derail his outlook include a sudden strengthening of the US dollar, delayed or absent interest rate cuts, unexpected spikes in inflation, or renewed geopolitical shocks that increase risk premia for commodities. Likewise, policy actions, market sentiment shifts, or significant changes in industrial demand for silver could alter the magnitude and timing of any rally.

Conclusion

In summary, Trading.com’s CEO expects a pronounced upswing for gold and silver in the back half of 2025, driven by currency moves, anticipated rate easing, and ongoing investor demand, with silver poised to record larger percentage gains. Concurrently, he sees crude oil moving lower in Q4 on the back of reduced geopolitical risk, ample supply, and easing inflationary pressures—dynamics that could ease energy costs for consumers and businesses. Investors should, however, monitor policy decisions and global developments closely, as shifts in those areas could materially impact these outlooks.