Gold Drops Again: Five Wall Street Desks Disagree on Cause

Gold is trading near $4,170 an ounce today, roughly 1.3% higher from this morning’s open but still recovering from Monday’s slide to a two-month low. Silver sits around $61.27, a level that several analysts now identify as critical. Over the past 24 hours, five institutional desks released new gold price outlooks — and they do not agree on the near-term path. Real yields are rising and market odds for more Fed hikes continue to climb, yet demand indicators such as central bank buying, ETF holdings, and China’s import data are holding up. Below we summarize what each desk is watching and why those signals matter for investors in bullion and related assets.

Why Does Saxo Bank Call Gold’s Pullback a ‘Sterner Test’?

Saxo Bank highlighted that gold slipped under the $4,230 support level on Monday. Analyst Ole Hansen described the move as a “sterner test,” pointing to a jump in the US 10-year real yield to multi-year highs and a firmer dollar as the main pressure points. The combination pushed gold down more than 3% in a single session, with silver falling about 5%. For weeks Hansen had argued that gold had begun to decouple from rising real yields, citing steady inflows into ETFs even as yields rose. Monday’s sharp drop directly challenges that thesis. If ETF holdings begin to decline significantly, the narrative of a sustained decoupling weakens. Conversely, if ETFs and other institutional buying remain steady through this selloff, that suggests large buyers may be looking past short-term yield moves and valuing different fundamentals than the paper market.

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Could Gold Really Retest $4,000 This Week?

State Street strategist Aakash Doshi says a retest of the $4,000 level is possible in the near term. His note warns that rising Fed-hike expectations and climbing yields could push spot prices back toward that area within days. That view is not a longer-term bearish call: Doshi still sees $4,000 acting as a near-term floor and retains a scenario in which gold reaches $5,000 within six months. State Street’s base case published earlier this year targeted a range of roughly $4,750 to $5,500 by early 2027, and this recent note adjusts the expected short-term path rather than the ultimate destination. The underlying drivers — central bank purchases, larger fiscal deficits, and the potential for further Fed tightening — remain key components of their longer-term thesis.

Why Is MKS PAMP Still Watching China Buy Gold Through the Selloff?

Nicky Shiels, head of research at MKS PAMP, emphasized a split between the paper and physical markets. Rising oil prices, higher real yields, and stronger Fed-hike pricing all weigh on gold’s paper price. Yet Shiels notes that China, other Asian buyers, and several emerging-market central banks have continued to accumulate physical bullion despite the selloff. That distinction matters: short-term price moves are shaped heavily by futures and ETF flows, but persistent physical demand tends to establish a durable price floor. When those two forces diverge significantly, it is often the physical demand side that provides the best clue about where the market may find lasting support.

Why Does StoneX See More Upside Than Downside for Q4?

StoneX takes a relatively bullish stance for the fourth quarter. The firm highlights that the People’s Bank of China has been a steady buyer, reporting double-digit monthly tonnage purchases since May. Aggregate reported central bank purchases year-to-date remain close to levels seen in the prior year, and StoneX judges the risk to its own forecast as skewed to the upside. The report names two key upside triggers: a weaker dollar resulting from a so-called debasement trade, or a de-escalation in geopolitical tensions — specifically a reopening of shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz — that could ease pressure on oil markets and reduce hawkish Fed pricing. Either outcome could prompt a coordinated move into physical and ETF holdings rather than the pattern of fading rallies that characterized much of Q3.

Is Silver’s $60 Level the Line Between a Bottom and a Breakdown?

Heraeus quantified China’s recent buying and set a clear technical marker for silver. China imported 142 tonnes of gold in August, bringing its eight-month total to more than 1,100 tonnes and implying a much stronger pace year-over-year. Heraeus projects a full-year import tally that would mark the strongest calendar pace of the decade so far. For silver, Heraeus identifies $60 as a pivotal level: a rebound above $60 that moves toward $70 despite a firm dollar and hawkish Fed signals would suggest the metal is bottoming. By contrast, a decisive close below $60 would indicate continued downward momentum from the peak seen earlier in the year. That $60 threshold aligns with technical support zones identified in recent charts and is an important level to monitor through the coming sessions.

SOURCES: Institutional notes and market reports issued between September 28–29, 2026, including research from Saxo Bank, State Street, MKS PAMP, StoneX, and Heraeus, as well as recent price data and market commentary.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.