Oil prices recovered modestly on Thursday, with Brent crude up about 1% at $66.78 and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gaining 1.2% to $63.02, rebounding after a roughly 2% slip in the previous session.
The recent decline followed reports that several OPEC+ members are preparing to propose faster output increases for June. Traders are weighing that supply perspective alongside evolving geopolitical and trade developments. Potential U.S.-China trade negotiations and renewed U.S.-Iran discussions over a nuclear agreement are both influencing market sentiment.
Reports in the Wall Street Journal suggested the White House might consider lowering tariffs on Chinese goods to about 50%, but mixed messaging from U.S. officials has left markets uncertain. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said the current tariff levels are unsustainable, yet White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt has indicated there will be no unilateral tariff reductions. This contradiction contributes to doubts about the timing and scale of any policy change that could affect global demand.
At the same time, a third round of U.S.-Iran talks scheduled for this weekend could, if successful, open the door to sanctions relief and a rise in Iranian oil exports. However, recent additional U.S. sanctions targeting parts of Iran’s energy sector signal ongoing friction and potential obstacles to a swift normalization of supplies.
Market participants are thus balancing the possibility of increased OPEC+ output and a longer-term lift in Iranian oil flows against uncertain demand signals tied to trade policy shifts and geopolitical rhetoric. Short-term price movements are likely to remain sensitive to headlines around OPEC+ production plans, progress in diplomatic talks, and any official clarification on U.S. tariff policy.
Overall, the outlook for oil remains contingent on how these supply and demand drivers evolve: whether OPEC+ measures to raise production are adopted, whether U.S.-China trade tensions ease in a way that boosts demand, and whether U.S.-Iran negotiations yield any meaningful sanctions relief. Until clearer signals emerge, markets are expected to react to incremental developments and official statements that shape expectations about future oil availability and global economic demand.