COMEX Silver First Notice Day April 30 — Key Market Signals to Watch

Gold and silver market update — April 27, 2026

Key Takeaways

• First Notice Day is Thursday, April 30. It coincides with the BEA’s Q1 2026 GDP advance estimate (8:30 a.m. EDT) and weekly jobless claims. The FOMC decision is scheduled one day earlier, on April 29.
• 134.8 million ounces of May contracts remain open as of April 27, according to CME Group futures data. Only about 77–80 million ounces of registered silver are held in approved warehouses and are immediately available for delivery.
• The coverage ratio is approximately 13–14% — below the 15% stress threshold for six consecutive months, based on CME Group data tracked by goldsilver.ai.
• Most May contracts will likely roll to July. The critical issue is what physical delivery activity on and after April 30 reveals about actual demand for deliverable metal.
• 762 million ounces have been drawn from above-ground stocks across five straight deficit years, per the World Silver Survey 2026. The projected 2026 shortfall is 46.3 million ounces — the sixth consecutive annual deficit. The COMEX coverage ratio reflects this cumulative tightness.

The COMEX May 2026 silver contract reaches First Notice Day this Thursday, April 30. Holders of open contracts must either close positions, roll to a later month, or accept physical delivery beginning that morning. As of April 27, 26,963 May contracts remain open, representing 134.8 million troy ounces. By contrast, the deliverable pool — registered silver held in CME-approved warehouses — stands at roughly 77–80 million ounces, per CME Group daily warehouse reports. That produces a coverage ratio near 13–14%, which has remained below the 15% stress threshold for six months running.

Silver trades near $75.67 this morning. With First Notice Day overlapping major macro releases, the timing against an already tight physical supply backdrop deserves close attention.

What Is COMEX Silver First Notice Day?

First Notice Day marks the first day a futures holder can be required to take or make physical delivery under the contract. After April 30, holders of May contracts must close their position, roll to July, or accept delivery of silver bars. Each COMEX silver contract represents 5,000 troy ounces.

In practice, most contracts never result in delivery: historically about 97–99% settle without physical exchange. May is expected to follow that norm. Open interest in the May contract has already fallen sharply: CME Group data showed 4,016 contracts closed in one session, and more than half of those rolled to July, which now carries 62,108 contracts.

The exchange will handle the month as it always does. The key question is whether the pace of physical deliveries reveals genuine demand for metal rather than paper claims against a shrinking deliverable pool.

Why Is COMEX Registered Silver So Low Right Now?

Registered silver is the metal held in CME Group–approved warehouses with active warrants, meaning it is immediately available for futures delivery. By late April, that deliverable pool was roughly 77–80 million troy ounces according to CME Group daily warehouse reports.

Total COMEX silver open interest across all delivery months equates to about 550–575 million ounces. That produces a coverage ratio around 13–14%, below the 15% level the exchange considers stressed. The ratio has remained under that threshold for six straight months, based on the goldsilver.ai COMEX inventory tracker.

January established a notable precedent when roughly 33.45 million ounces left registered inventory in a single week — about 26% of the deliverable pool at that time, per CME Group data. While a repeat of that drawdown in May is unlikely, the registered pool has not been replenished and is smaller entering First Notice Day than it was in January.

To put flows in context: on the May contract alone, each 1% increase in the delivery rate requires an extra 1.3–1.4 million ounces of registered metal. Across all active delivery months, that rises to roughly 5–6 million ounces per percentage point. Those amounts are not catastrophic on a single day, but sustained delivery rates over multiple days would strain an unchanged deliverable pool.

What Other Data Lands on April 30?

Two additional market-moving releases arrive the same morning as First Notice Day.

At 8:30 a.m. EDT the Bureau of Economic Analysis releases its Q1 2026 GDP advance estimate — the first official read on whether oil-driven inflation has slowed U.S. growth. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model tracked Q1 growth at about 1.2% annualized as of April 21, and the IMF trimmed its 2026 U.S. forecast to 1.8% in April. A weak GDP print would reinforce stagflation concerns, a backdrop that typically supports physical precious metals. A stronger-than-expected print would help clear the path for Fed rate cuts later in 2026, which also tends to support gold and silver prices.

Weekly initial jobless claims are released the same morning, offering an additional snapshot of labor conditions ahead of the Fed’s June meeting.

In short: three important inputs are resolved in one morning. The GDP number and the physical delivery picture will be addressed simultaneously, and their interaction could influence price action.

What Does the Coverage Ratio Signal for Physical Silver Holders?

Physical silver — coins, bars, and allocated vault storage — exists outside COMEX records. It carries no rolling pressure or margin requirements, and no warehouse warrant changes hands when you own metal outright. The coverage ratio does not directly threaten physical holders, but it is the clearest real-time indicator of conditions beneath the market.

A sustained ratio below 15% for six months signals one clear dynamic: market participants who need deliverable metal are competing for a shrinking pool. That represents a structural change versus several years ago when registered stocks were much larger.

Thursday’s First Notice Day will most likely pass quietly, with the majority of May contracts rolling to July. What matters is what happens after — whether registered inventories hold or decline. The World Silver Survey 2026 documents the broader context: 762 million troy ounces removed from above-ground stocks across five straight deficit years, with a projected 2026 shortfall of 46.3 million ounces. That structural drawdown continues regardless of a quiet delivery day.

Watch the coverage ratio on Friday, May 1. The immediate delivery tallies on Thursday will likely look unremarkable. The coverage ratio will reveal whether the registered pool held steady or shrank, and whether physical demand is beginning to exert sustained pressure — the development that converts a structural supply story into a price story.

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SOURCES
1. CME Group — COMEX Silver Warehouse Stocks and Delivery Notices
2. CME Group — Silver Futures Contract Specifications
3. GoldSilver.ai — COMEX Silver Inventory Tracker
4. Bureau of Economic Analysis — Gross Domestic Product, Q1 2026 Advance Estimate
5. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta — GDPNow Model, Q1 2026
6. IMF — World Economic Outlook, April 2026
7. Silver Institute and Metals Focus — World Silver Survey 2026
8. Federal Reserve — FOMC Meeting Calendar 2026

By the GoldSilver Editorial Team — helping investors understand sound money since 2005. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or tax advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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