VanEck portfolio manager Imaru Casanova projects that gold could climb to $3,250 an ounce by late 2025, extending a strong rally that has pushed prices roughly 43% higher over the past year. Casanova’s forecast reflects a sustained bullish outlook for the metal as investors and institutions re-evaluate gold’s role in diversified portfolios amid rising geopolitical and economic uncertainty.
One of the main forces behind this advance is a sharp increase in central bank buying. Since 2022, official sector purchases of gold have accelerated to about 1,000 tonnes per year, roughly double the pace seen before the invasion of Ukraine. Central banks are replenishing reserves and adding strategic allocations to hedge against currency volatility, geopolitical risk and persistent inflationary pressures. This renewed appetite from sovereign buyers has materially tightened available supply, supporting upward pressure on prices.
At the same time, demand from private-sector buyers — including investors, wealth managers and some parts of industry — has remained resilient. Persistent macroeconomic concerns, uneven growth prospects across regions and episodic market stress have pushed more institutional and retail participants toward safe-haven assets. Gold’s historical role as a store of value and a portfolio diversifier becomes particularly attractive when interest rates, fiscal deficits and global tensions all point to elevated risk.
Despite the strong rise in the gold price, gold mining equities have not kept pace with the metal itself. This divergence has created a potential investment opportunity for long-term investors. Several factors help explain the gap: mining shares are sensitive to operational risks, capital expenditure needs, corporate governance, and geopolitics at mine sites, whereas bullion moves more directly with macro drivers. Still, mining companies have seen meaningful improvements in cash flow and profitability.
On a per-ounce basis, many major miners have seen profit margins more than double compared with recent historical levels. Reported margins have risen from about $591 per ounce to roughly $1,204 per ounce, even as production costs have increased. Higher realized gold prices, operational efficiencies and disciplined capital allocation have bolstered mine-level economics. For investors, this combination of elevated margins and a lagging equity performance can offer selective value if company-specific risks are carefully assessed.
Supply dynamics also remain a critical part of the outlook. Mine production growth is modest, constrained by years of underinvestment, permitting delays and rising input costs. At the same time, recycling can fluctuate based on price levels, and exploration success has not yet reversed a long-term decline in new large-scale discoveries. When sovereign buying, steady investor demand and constrained supply converge, the potential for sustained price appreciation increases.
Risks to the bullish scenario include a faster-than-expected disinflationary trend, a sharp and sustained decline in geopolitical tensions, or a significant repricing of real interest rates that reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. Conversely, persistent inflation surprises, renewed geopolitical shocks, or additional central bank purchases could accelerate upward momentum. Investors should weigh these scenarios and consider diversification, time horizons and liquidity needs before adjusting allocations.
Ultimately, Casanova’s forecast for gold near $3,250 an ounce by late 2025 is rooted in a combination of strong central bank demand, constrained supply and improving margins at mines. While miners’ equities have lagged the metal’s gains, improved profitability at the producer level and continued strategic buying by official institutions create a backdrop that could sustain higher prices over the medium term.