JP Morgan projects that gold could reach $3,000 per ounce in 2025, driven mainly by sustained central bank buying and renewed inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
After a strong 27% rally in 2024, the bank’s outlook remains constructive. Central bank purchases rose sharply—up 54% year-over-year by late 2024—with China’s central bank returning to the market as a notable contributor. These sustained official purchases provide a solid foundation for higher prices.
JP Morgan outlines two plausible scenarios that could further elevate gold: first, escalating trade tensions combined with rising inflation; and second, a Federal Reserve easing cycle that lowers real yields and increases the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold. Either path would likely support stronger investor demand for the metal.
Beyond central bank activity, JP Morgan highlights large pools of potential investment capital. Money market funds currently hold more than $6 trillion, and ETF holdings of gold remain about 6% below their 2020 peak. If macro conditions stabilize in 2025 and money market funds become less attractive relative to other asset classes, a portion of those funds could flow into ETFs and other gold exposures, amplifying upward pressure on prices.
The combination of persistent official buying, possible policy easing, heightened geopolitical or trade risks, and a large base of investable cash creates a favorable backdrop for gold. While short-term volatility remains possible, JP Morgan’s forecast reflects the view that structural demand and a sizable pool of potential investor capital could push gold toward the $3,000-per-ounce level next year.