The Federal Reserve now looks more unified in its view that interest rate cuts are unlikely to occur before late 2024, as even policymakers who have historically favored easier policy are urging caution.
Christopher Waller, a Fed governor appointed by former President Trump, said the economic effects of announced tariffs are unlikely to be clear until the second half of 2024, reinforcing the need for patience.
Markets have responded by lowering expectations for near‑term easing: the probability of a May rate cut is virtually zero, and odds for a June reduction have also fallen.
Most economists have shifted their forecasts, now anticipating the Fed’s first rate cut sometime in September or October. Officials have emphasized they do not want to make “pre‑emptive moves” without clear, convincing evidence that the economy requires easier policy.