The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) has published its Precious Metals Market Report for Q1 2025. The report highlights notable developments in the gold and silver markets over the first quarter.
Gold: Strong Gains and Elevated Demand
Gold saw robust growth in Q1 2025, with prices climbing steadily through the quarter. The year began with gold trading at $2,644.60 — still below the October 2024 record — but sentiment shifted sharply after the U.S. presidential inauguration on January 20. Concerns about potential changes in trade policy prompted a surge in demand for physical gold in New York. Reports indicate approximately 393 metric tonnes moved into Comex vaults, a 75% increase that pushed inventories to levels not seen since 2022.
This influx of metal created a short-lived premium in New York, where gold traded roughly $60 above London prices at one point, and provoked questions about supply availability in London. London vault inventories declined by 2.41% through February, but by the end of the quarter they had largely stabilized and even showed a modest uptick of 0.14%.
Price momentum accelerated from mid-January onward, culminating in an all-time high of $3,120.20 on March 31. That represents a quarterly gain of 17.8%, outperforming many analysts’ expectations. In response to the rally, several forecasting groups adjusted their outlooks upward: for example, Goldman Sachs increased its year-end forecast from $3,000 to $3,300, while Macquarie Bank suggested the possibility of prices reaching $3,500 in Q3.
Silver: Strong Quarter but Outpaced by Gold
Silver also posted significant gains, rising 15.52% in Q1. However, its performance lagged behind gold’s stronger advance. One notable driver of demand was India, where silver imports surged 37% year-over-year in January to 875 tonnes — the highest monthly total since 2008. This increase reflects ongoing robust physical demand from a key consumer market.
Unlike gold, though, London’s silver vault holdings fell substantially during the quarter. Totals dropped from 827,544,000 ounces to 711,396,000 ounces, a decline of roughly 14%. The drawdown in London inventories highlights differences in regional storage and flow dynamics between the two metals during the period.
Market Implications
The Q1 2025 data point to continued strength in precious metals driven by heightened physical demand and shifts in investor positioning. The surge of gold into Comex vaults and the resulting regional price dislocation underscore how quickly flows can affect local market conditions. At the same time, the stabilization of London gold inventories by quarter-end suggests some rebalancing after early-year movements.
For silver, rising imports into major consuming countries and large declines in London vault stocks suggest that physical demand remains a key influence on price direction. Both metals’ strong quarterly returns have prompted analysts to revise forecasts and underscored the sensitivity of precious metals markets to geopolitical and policy-related developments.
Overall, the LBMA’s Q1 2025 report shows a market environment where physical demand, regional inventory shifts and evolving macro expectations combined to drive significant price gains for gold and silver. Market participants will likely watch continued flows into major vaulting centers and any policy changes that could influence trade and investor sentiment as the year progresses.