Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price forecast to $3,700 per troy ounce by the end of 2025, citing persistent central bank buying and growing investor demand.
The bank highlights that central banks continue to purchase substantial amounts of gold each month, while exchange-traded fund (ETF) investors are boosting their allocations. This trend is partly driven by expectations of future interest rate cuts and heightened concerns about a potential recession.
Under a recession scenario, Goldman Sachs estimates that gold could climb even higher — potentially reaching about $3,880 per troy ounce. Such a move would reflect gold’s traditional role as a safe-haven asset when economic growth slows and financial volatility rises.
Goldman Sachs also warns that a larger rotation of private investor capital out of U.S. assets and into gold could push prices up further. Because the global gold market is small relative to U.S. Treasuries and equity markets, even moderate inflows into bullion or gold-backed ETFs can have an outsized impact on price.
In summary, the bank’s outlook is driven by three main factors: steady central bank purchases, increasing ETF accumulation by investors preparing for lower rates or recession, and the potential for private capital to shift away from U.S. assets into gold. Together, these dynamics could support substantially higher gold prices through 2025, according to Goldman Sachs.