Switzerland’s exports to the United States increased by 1.1% in July, driven largely by higher shipments of gold and watches. This rise occurred shortly before the Trump administration unexpectedly imposed a 39% tariff on certain Swiss goods, the steepest rate applied to any developed country.
Gold exports reached their highest monthly level since March, reflecting Switzerland’s position as the world’s leading gold-refining center. Strong demand from the US helped Swiss watch exports return to growth after a period of weakness. Together, these sectors contributed notably to the overall rise in shipments to the American market.
The newly announced tariff covers roughly 10% of Switzerland’s exports and falls hardest on machinery and technology products. At present, pharmaceuticals have been spared from the tariff, but they account for nearly half of Swiss exports to the United States, making them a sensitive potential target. Swiss officials have moved quickly to open negotiations with Washington in hopes of reducing the levy, while at home policymakers are pursuing measures to lower production costs for affected industries.
Switzerland’s substantial role in global precious metals trade has amplified the economic impact of these developments. In the first quarter, gold exports—valued at over $36 billion—represented around two-thirds of Switzerland’s trade surplus with the US, underscoring how concentrated parts of bilateral trade have become.
Although the tariff is severe, most analysts do not currently expect Switzerland to slip into recession because of it. Still, uncertainty remains: if tariffs were to be extended to pharmaceutical products, the economic consequences could be far more significant given their large share of Swiss exports to America. For now, the focus is on diplomatic engagement with US counterparts and targeted domestic policies aimed at cushioning affected sectors while maintaining competitiveness in global markets.