5 Market Moves for Aug 25: Gold Pullback, Jackson Hole, Intel Warning

Gold Retreats from Two-Week High as Dollar Gains

Gold eased back after Friday’s surge as a firmer U.S. dollar made bullion more expensive for overseas buyers. Spot gold slipped about 0.2% to near $3,364 per ounce, while December futures cooled to roughly $3,410. The pullback followed a move to the highest levels since August 11 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks at Jackson Hole.

Markets still assign an 85–90% probability to a 25 basis-point Fed rate cut on Sept. 17, a development that would support gold over time. In the short term, however, prices are tracking the dollar’s strength. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said Powell’s comments point toward only a modest quarter-point cut, an outlook that has bolstered the dollar and pressured gold. Other metals slipped as well: silver fell about 0.3% to $38.72 and platinum declined roughly 1.1% to $1,346.21.

Analysts remain constructive on gold’s medium-term outlook. Han Tan of Nemo.Money expects spot gold to test new record highs above $3,500 if the Federal Reserve proceeds with easing and central banks continue to accumulate reserves.

Jackson Hole: Easier Policy Talk, Tough Trade-offs

Powell signaled a willingness to cut rates if labor-market risks increase, but he noted that inflation has not yet returned sustainably to the Fed’s 2% goal. That left policymakers divided on the timing of any easing. Powell described the economy as presenting a “challenging situation,” with inflation still elevated even as some labor-market indicators show strain.

With markets leaning toward a quarter-point cut in September, the path forward remains bumpy due to political pressure and differences among global central banks. The Jackson Hole meeting underscored clear divisions among Fed officials—two governors dissented in July when rates were kept steady—and security was notably tighter this year. Political dynamics surfaced as well, with public calls for lower rates from influential figures. Powell also introduced an updated framework that restores a more balanced focus on both inflation and employment, a shift from the 2020 approach that emphasized low inflation.

Bottom line: The Fed appears to be moving closer to easing, but the process will be gradual and data-dependent.

Fed Chair Search: No Rush on Powell’s Replacement

NEC Director Kevin Hassett indicated the administration’s decision on a successor to Chair Powell is still a few months away. Treasury officials are conducting a broad search with multiple interviews underway, signaling there is no plan to name a replacement immediately and thereby reduce the risk of short-term policy disruption.

Currently, prediction markets show strong interest in Kevin Hassett and former Fed governor Kevin Warsh, both viewed as favoring lower rates. Other potential names include Fed Governor Chris Waller and Michelle Bowman. Powell’s term expires in May 2026, giving the White House time to finalize a choice. Nevertheless, markets are already debating how independent a future chair might be from political influence.

Stablecoins Poised to Influence Short-Term Treasuries

New U.S. stablecoin regulations are likely to push issuers toward holding more short-term U.S. Treasurys as backing, potentially creating a significant new source of demand at the short end of the curve. The stablecoin market, roughly $250 billion today and up about 22% this year, could grow substantially over the coming years, with some analysts projecting potential expansion into the low-trillions by the decade’s end.

The recently enacted GENIUS Act requires stablecoin issuers to back tokens with dollars or high-quality liquid assets, effectively making short-term Treasury bills a preferred form of collateral. Treasury officials described the rules as expanding dollar access while increasing demand for Treasurys. Large issuers already rank among the top buyers of U.S. government paper, and steady inflows from stablecoins have the potential to lower short-term bill yields by a few basis points over short windows, according to central bank data.

Although stablecoin holdings remain small compared with traditional institutional buyers, their rapid growth means they could soon influence money-market liquidity and bill yields. Market participants and policymakers will be watching how this structural shift unfolds.

Intel Warns U.S. Government Stake Could Hurt Business

Intel disclosed that the U.S. government’s new roughly 10% equity stake—created by converting $8.9 billion in CHIPS Act grants into shares—could pose material business risks. With about three-quarters of revenue generated outside the United States and nearly 30% coming from China, Intel warned that being perceived as partially government-owned might invite foreign regulatory scrutiny or restrictions under other countries’ subsidy laws.

The government acquired shares at a discount relative to recent prices, a move that dilutes existing shareholders. Intel also noted the stake could complicate future grant applications, as agencies may be reluctant to provide further support or might prefer equity conversions. The transaction was expected to finalize after company leadership met with senior officials to address governance and strategic concerns.

The gold angle: With a government equity stake, political risk for the company rises. By contrast, gold is often valued for its lack of counterparty exposure—no board, management team, or shareholder that can alter the asset’s standing.