Gold and Silver Prices Today: Stagflation, Fed Moves, What’s Next

What Are Gold and Silver Prices Today? 

Here’s what’s driving gold and silver prices today — and what to watch heading into Wednesday.

On Monday, gold eased, briefly dropping below the psychologically important $5,000 level. The pullback was supported by a firmer U.S. dollar and softer expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Silver moved lower as well, sliding almost 1% on the session. Both metals remain well under their January peaks.

The market faces a clear tension: inflationary pressure from the Iran war should support gold, while a resilient dollar exerts downward pressure. Until that conflict between forces resolves, expect price swings and choppy trading.

Oil Pulls Back, Stocks Rally — But Relief May Be Short-Lived 

Oil retreated Monday, falling roughly 3% to about $95 a barrel after earlier reaching $102. The S&P 500 climbed 1%, marking its best day in five weeks. Yet similar relief rallies have followed the same pattern since the Iran war began: brief gains that later reverse.

The fundamental issue remains unchanged: the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, and conditions on the ground provide little reason to expect a sustained drop in crude prices.

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Why Aren’t Gas Prices Falling With Oil? 

Although crude has been volatile, gasoline prices have moved mainly higher. The national average has risen to around $3.72 per gallon — nearly 80 cents above levels from a month ago. Crude briefly spiked toward $120 per barrel early in the conflict before backing off; at $95 it still sits roughly 35% above pre-war prices.

Another factor keeping pump prices elevated is the seasonal shift to summer gasoline blends, which are more expensive to produce. Given these dynamics, significant relief at the pump is unlikely in the near term.

What Does the Fed’s March Meeting Mean for Gold? 

The Federal Reserve begins a two-day meeting tomorrow. A decision to hold rates Wednesday appears likely; the dot plot will be the key release. It will reveal policymakers’ expectations for inflation and interest rates for the remainder of 2026. Before the Iran war, markets generally priced in at least one rate cut this year.

With oil-driven inflation climbing and GDP growth already soft, some analysts say further rate hikes cannot be ruled out. That mix — slowing growth with persistent inflation — is the classic stagflation scenario, historically favorable for precious metals because they are seen as a hedge against eroding purchasing power.

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