Gold and Silver Hold as Bessent Seeks Hormuz Deal, JOLTS Falls

Five separate developments explain why gold is rising today. Each is a data point in the same, ongoing question: will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates in September, or will it hold? The market’s read on that question keeps shifting, and gold and silver are moving with it.

When Hike Odds Fall, Gold Rises

Both series indexed to 100 on July 28. Since the Fed’s 9–3 decision to hold, gold and the probability of a September rate hike have moved in opposite directions.

Gold spot price

September hike probability

Indexed: Jul 28, 2026 = 100

Source: goldsilver.com price charts · CME FedWatch Tool · August 4, 2026

Is the Hormuz Deal Actually Happening, or Is Another Vessel on Fire?

This morning, a senior U.S. official said a Strait of Hormuz agreement could be announced “today or tomorrow” with terms intended to guarantee freedom of movement for commercial vessels. That comment pressured oil lower and supported gains in both gold and silver.

Within hours, however, a cargo vessel reported being hit by an unknown projectile in the strait, and Iran’s foreign ministry denied direct talks with Washington, saying any communication is mediated through a third country. The market is pricing this contradiction: the possibility of a de-escalation that reduces oil prices, alongside real-world incidents that keep geopolitical risk alive.

In short, one official’s optimism, a maritime incident, and denials from the other side are occurring simultaneously. That ambiguity drives precious metals higher today because a lower oil price reduces near-term inflation pressure and, by extension, the odds of an imminent Fed hike. But the market has not priced in a settled diplomatic outcome.

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What Does the JOLTS Report Landing This Morning Mean for Gold?

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its June Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) at 10:00am ET. Markets had expected 7.44 million openings, down from May’s 7.6 million. The JOLTS number matters because it influences the market’s probability that the Fed will raise rates in September.

This is the first significant labor-market data point since the Fed’s July 29 decision to hold rates in which three regional presidents dissented in favor of an immediate hike. September hike odds were roughly two-thirds as of early August. A softer JOLTS print would reduce those odds and give gold upside toward higher price levels; a stronger print would reassert the case for a September hike and lean on gold.

Watch gold’s intraday reaction to the release as a proxy for how traders are interpreting the data relative to Fed timing.

Why Did NY Fed President John Williams Put Investors on Notice?

New York Fed President John Williams said recently that policy “remains well positioned” to reach the inflation target and added a decisive line markets notice: if inflation is not on track to 2%, the Fed will act to restore price stability. Although Williams is not a voting FOMC member this year, his remarks echo language used by the July 29 dissenters.

That consistency matters for precious metals because much of this year’s sell-off in gold was driven by rising real yields as investors adjusted to a less accommodative Fed. Williams’ comments suggest the Fed’s readiness to tighten remains on the table; whether that mechanism is re-engaged will depend on incoming labor and inflation data later in the week.

Why Is Silver Rising Faster Than Gold Today?

Gold is up modestly, while silver has advanced at a notably faster pace. There are two primary reasons. First, falling oil prices ease inflation expectations and reduce the immediate case for Fed hikes. Silver benefits more from such a shift because it carries a material industrial-demand component—roughly half or more of overall silver consumption—so an easing of rate-hike pressure improves both safe-haven and industrial-demand narratives.

Second, the gold-to-silver ratio remains elevated relative to its long-term average, implying structural undervaluation of silver versus gold. When market conditions tilt in silver’s favor, it can outperform gold on the upside. Historically, every meaningful move toward a lower ratio has coincided with periods of stronger silver performance within broader precious-metals rallies.

How Does a Weaker Dollar Support Gold Right Now?

The U.S. Dollar Index has weakened over several sessions and is near a multi-week low. Currency interventions elsewhere and the Fed’s July 29 pause both narrowed the interest-rate differential that had been supporting the dollar. A softer dollar makes dollar-priced commodities such as gold more affordable to overseas buyers, expanding global demand.

That dynamic is working quietly alongside the Iran-related news and incoming labor data. None of these factors is settled, but together they explain why gold has held above recent levels rather than collapsing: lower oil, softer dollar, and ambiguous Fed odds are collectively providing support under both gold and silver.

SOURCES
1. Scott Bessent, US Treasury Secretary — interview on CNBC Squawk Box, August 4, 2026.
2. UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) — cargo vessel distress call, Strait of Hormuz, August 4, 2026.
3. Bureau of Labor Statistics — JOLTS, June 2026, released August 4, 2026.
4. CME Group FedWatch Tool — September 2026 rate-hike probability as of early August 4, 2026.
5. Remarks by New York Federal Reserve President John Williams, August 3, 2026.
6. Federal Reserve FOMC statement, July 29, 2026, holding the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% with three dissenting votes.
7. Silver industry supply-demand analysis indicating a significant industrial component of silver demand.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.