Goldman Sachs analyst Daan Struyven, who heads global commodities research and leads the firm’s oil coverage, offers his perspective on the continuing gold rally.
The bank has raised its end‑2025 gold price forecast to $3,300 per troy ounce, up from $3,100, and set a forecast range of $3,250–$3,520. This revision reflects stronger‑than‑expected inflows into gold ETFs and ongoing robust demand from central banks. Although uncertainty remains significant, Goldman Sachs estimates that large Asian central bank purchases are likely to continue at a rapid pace for another three to six years as they build reserves toward the bank’s assessed target ranges.
The base‑case view assumes that speculative positioning in gold markets will normalize from current elevated levels—around the 85th percentile—while the upper end of the forecast range assumes positioning stays stretched amid persistent uncertainty. Overall, medium‑term risks are skewed to the upside. In stress‑case or tail‑risk scenarios, the bank shows that gold could exceed $4,200 per troy ounce by the end of 2025.